The Taliban, a militant group known for its unified image and strict control over internal dissent, is witnessing an unprecedented degree of internal disagreement, unveiling the cracks in the group and hinting at a deepening power struggle. This internal discord could potentially result in violent conflict and ignite a fresh civil war, further destabilizing an already volatile area, experts caution.
Michael Semple, a former advisor to Afghanistan for the EU and UN, stated, “Despite their culture of unity and secrecy, there have been recent public displays of discord. These indicate that the group is under significant stress.”
In a striking event, the Taliban’s Refugees Minister, Khalil Haqqani, was assassinated in a suicide bombing in December, marking the highest-profile casualty since the Taliban’s takeover in 2021. Many of Haqqani’s supporters privately blame his internal rivals in the Taliban for this act, according to knowledgeable sources.
Moreover, following his public criticism of the group’s spiritual leader, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, a senior Taliban official left the country in January. This official, Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, also condemned Akhundzada’s ban on girls’ education, a decision that has earned global reproach. Stanikzai is now in the United Arab Emirates for health reasons, though reports suggest he fled after a warrant was issued for his arrest.
Amid these developments, more Taliban members are publicly expressing frustration over delayed salary payments. However, the group’s spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, rejects the notion of any internal rifts. He assured that the Taliban “will never engage in disagreements that could bring instability back to the country.” Yet, anonymous sources within the Taliban describe the current situation as “chaotic” and “uncertain.”
These events indicate a serious challenge to the group’s unity, according to Semple, a professor at Queen’s University Belfast. He adds, “The political and military opposition to the Taliban is weaker than in the 1990s, but the expectations of the Afghan population are much higher and the levels of popular frustration with Taliban performance are unprecedented. Unhappy Taliban know this.”
The group’s internal disagreements have become more visible since they regained power in 2021. Akhundzada has monopolized power, sidelined moderate figures, and implemented strict policies that have turned Afghanistan into an international outcast.
These disputes, along with the external threat posed by the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) extremist group and the increasing financial strain on the Taliban’s unrecognized government, could threaten the group’s cohesion. Experts suggest that if these internal divisions remain unaddressed, Afghanistan might be plunged into another cycle of internal conflict.
