The inauguration of the new U.S. President, Donald Trump, is set to bring about a significant shift in Washington’s stance on Ukraine, signaling a strong push towards a peace or cease-fire agreement and an evident inclination for U.S. disengagement. This has prompted European leaders to contemplate previously unconsidered strategies to guarantee post-conflict security for Ukraine, without U.S. participation.
French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed the idea of deploying European military forces to Ukraine. This suggestion, initially introduced nearly a year ago, gained renewed momentum following Trump’s election victory. Expressions of willingness to participate in a potential mission have come from Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto and his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius. However, these propositions underscore the immense hurdles such a mission would face.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has declared these discussions to be premature. Furthermore, considering Germany’s World War II invasion of the Soviet Union, including Ukraine, it is difficult to envision German forces deployed in Ukraine.
The European Union’s foreign affairs head, Kaja Kallas, has stated that there can be no negotiations while Russia continues to shell Ukraine. This statement emphasizes the potential hindrance that Russian President Vladimir Putin could pose to a European military presence in Ukraine.
Despite Trump’s confidence in achieving a deal within six months, experts like Ian Bond, deputy director of the Center for European Reform, cast doubt on Putin’s interest in negotiations.
Nicu Popescu, from the European Council on Foreign Relations, points out another challenge. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia can block any peacekeeping mission. The discussion among European leaders is not about peacekeeping, but rather a military presence to prevent another war.
Despite having Europe’s most powerful military forces, Britain and France are currently stretched thin. Britain’s military has been primarily focused on anti-terrorist and counterinsurgency operations since the 2001 attacks in the U.S. and has suffered budget cuts in the last decade. France’s military, although larger than Britain’s, has also been overstretched due to prolonged combat deployments across Africa.
Political constraints add to these military challenges. The potential unpopularity of such a move amongst the public, coupled with the significant risks involved, make the idea of deploying European forces to Ukraine without U.S. participation a difficult sell for Europe’s leaders.
However, some analysts suggest that if the situation on the battlefield worsens, European leaders might feel obliged to intervene. Despite this, most agree that we are far from reaching that point.
