Title: The Unraveling of a Decades-Long Alliance: The Syrian-Iranian Relationship and What It Means for Global Geopolitics
In a surprising turn of events, Hafez al-Assad, a member of the Alawite minority, seized the reins of Syria’s Ba’ath Party in 1970. However, his rise to power was met with substantial resistance. The country’s Constitution reserved the presidency for Muslims, and many Sunni groups considered the Alawites as non-Muslims.
A significant intervention by Iranian clerics salvaged Assad’s presidency. They proclaimed the Alawites as a sect of Shia Islam, setting the stage for a partnership that would significantly shape the Middle East for the next half-century.
Under the Assad regime, Syria became the first Arab nation to recognize the newly formed Islamic Republic of Iran. This recognition laid the groundwork for Syria’s support of Iran during its war against Iraq from 1980 to 1988.
Fast forward to 2011, Bashar al-Assad, fearing the fall of his regime, sought Iran’s assistance. Iran jumped at the chance to turn Syria into a crucial player within the “Shia crescent,” a region predominantly inhabited by Shia populations and Iran-backed groups that stretches from Iraq to Lebanon.
Iran’s geopolitical strategy, referred to as the “axis of resistance,” has played a vital role in maintaining Assad’s power and consolidating the influence of the Quds forces, the military unit dedicated to carrying out operations outside Iran to advance the Islamic revolution.
However, this Shia crescent is now in a state of collapse. Iran is now at a crossroads, with each potential path carrying significant regional and global consequences.
Preliminary reports suggest that Tehran is taking a more diplomatic approach towards the victorious rebel forces in Syria. Nevertheless, the future of this relationship largely depends on whether the new Syrian government allows Iranian support to Hezbollah via Syria and invites the Quds forces back to continue their operations against Israel.
If Tehran deems this unlikely, it may resort to destabilizing Syria, similar to its actions in Lebanon in the 1980s and post-Saddam Iraq. Alternatively, Iran might step up its uranium enrichment capabilities if it believes the “axis of resistance” is lost, potentially escalating regional uncertainty.
A third possibility could see China gaining a foothold in the Middle East. Recent diplomatic visits by Chinese President Xi Jinping and then-Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, suggest China may play a key role in the future dynamics of the region.
Given these developments, Tehran may attempt to build stronger relations with other Arab nations, potentially reducing regional tensions. However, this would require a significant shift in Iran’s foreign policy, which is currently at odds with its desire for rapprochement with Arab states.
For the West, particularly the United States, these developments raise critical questions. The emergence of China as a leading global power capable of engaging with all parties in the region is a stark contrast to the US’s traditional position of military interventions and alignment with specific regional powers.
As the world awaits the next moves from these major players, one thing remains certain: the downfall of Bashar al-Assad signals the end of a crucial alliance between Syria and Iran. This shift could plunge Iran and the world into a state of unprecedented uncertainty, presenting both opportunities and risks.
In conclusion, the impending geopolitical shifts in the Middle East necessitate a vigilant and strategic approach from all involved parties, particularly those interested in investment opportunities in the region. The fall of the al-Assad regime could be a game-changer in the global geopolitical arena, marking a new and unpredictable chapter in the history of the Middle East.
