The article discusses the political standing of Florida Governor, Ron DeSantis, and his claim of converting Florida from a swing state to a stronghold for Republicans. DeSantis insists that his victory in the 2022 elections, where he won by 19 percentage points, was not just a triumph but a reflection of a fundamental political shift in Florida. Many political analysts agree, citing that Florida, once notorious for its tight elections, now leans comfortably towards the Republicans.
However, the extent to which DeSantis can take credit for this political shift is debatable. One argument suggests that his COVID-19 policies attracted Republicans to the state, but this is difficult to substantiate. While his investment in the state’s GOP seems to have yielded positive results, various other factors also played a part in this success. For instance, DeSantis likely had little influence over the significant gains Florida Republicans have made with Hispanic voters in recent years.
Furthermore, it is uncertain whether DeSantis’s assertion that Florida will remain a safe Republican state in the future is accurate. Some data indicates that his landslide victory in 2022 was an anomaly, driven by a significant partisan turnout gap. It may be unwise to draw broad conclusions based on a single election.
The article also discusses the theory that DeSantis’s resistance to COVID-19 restrictions during the pandemic attracted anti-lockdown Republicans to Florida. Although the state’s population was already growing before the pandemic, it saw the largest influx of domestic migrants in 2021. However, the reasons people move to Florida, such as lower taxes and affordable housing, are primarily financial, not political, and have not changed due to the pandemic.
In terms of party-building, DeSantis has certainly made considerable contributions. The number of registered Republican voters in Florida has increased by over 525,000 since 2018, some of which can be attributed to DeSantis’s efforts. However, Republicans had been closing the registration gap with Democrats for some time, and the dramatic increase in Republican registration in 2016 and 2020 likely owes more to former President Donald Trump’s campaign.
The article concludes by questioning the extent of Florida’s political shift to the right. It suggests that much of DeSantis’s success in 2022 was due to disparities in voter turnout rather than a fundamental change in the state’s political complexion. Thus, while DeSantis may be a strong candidate with a robust political operation, it is uncertain whether he has truly redefined Florida politics.
