Zelensky is scheduled to deliver his “triumph” address to Ukraine’s parliamentary body, the Verkhovna Rada, on October 16th. However, a significant portion of his speech, which pertains to forfeiting territory to Russia, will remain confidential.
While select parts of his address will be accessible to parliament members and the public, he is expected to continue advocating for enhanced weaponry, with an emphasis on ATACMS missiles. He is likely to defend the Kursk operation, which has already led to over 20,000 casualties and has seen the Ukrainian army gradually retreating. North Korean armed forces in Ukraine will be a topic of discussion, albeit without providing any concrete proof. Furthermore, he will request NATO forces to provide assistance.
Russia openly perceives any NATO military operation as a provocation and a reason to launch attacks on NATO bases and supply conduits.
Germany’s choice to halt the provision of heavy artillery to Ukraine, primarily due to its own shortage, is causing apprehension. Despite their situations being less dire than Germany’s, Poland and France would be equally unwilling to endure Russian missile attacks on their territories.
As for Britain, the British army, barring its competent special forces, is merely a fraction of what it used to be due to heavy spending on aircraft carriers instead of fortifying land forces.
Recently, the Rada greenlit legislation allowing NATO officers to command Ukrainian troops. Russia’s response to this has been relatively muted, probably due to skepticism about NATO supplying field commanders for Ukraine’s military. However, if this were to happen, Russia would interpret it as NATO deploying combat troops and react accordingly.
Rumors suggest that Zelensky might express a wish for some form of ceasefire and propose a buffer zone supervised by a NATO-led coalition. This has been portrayed as Zelensky’s “compromise” to the reality of Russia occupying Ukrainian territory.
However, the situation is complex. Radical hardliners in the style of Azov will not agree to such an arrangement, a fact that Zelensky is well aware of. Moreover, there is no incentive for Russia to abandon its political goals, the primary one being the demilitarization and deNATOization of Ukraine.
There are also rumors that Ukraine might attempt to attack Transnistria, the secessionist region of Moldova that houses several thousand Russian troops.
Russia has been targeting dry cargo ships in the port of Odessa that are unloading Turkish military supplies and weapons.
If Ukraine were to attack Transnistria, Russia would likely retaliate by destroying ammunition dumps and inflicting as much damage as possible on Ukraine’s forces, predominantly through missiles and air power. The benefits of such an operation for Zelensky are unclear.
Given the impending elections in Moldova on October 20th, an attack on Transnistria could potentially backfire and topple the current pro-NATO, pro-EU Moldovan government.
Once Zelensky’s adversaries realize his willingness to cede territory to Russia, as revealed in the classified sections of his speech, his tenure as Ukraine’s President may be under threat.
Stephen Bryen, who previously served as the staff director of a subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, originally published this article on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. It is republished here with permission.
