Welcome to the Wider Europe Bulletin, a weekly newsletter from RFE/RL. We provide you with the most important updates on the European Union, NATO, and other significant institutions, focusing on their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe’s eastern regions. I’m Rikard Jozwiak, the Europe Editor for RFE/RL, and this week, we’re diving deep into the role of the EU in the Ukraine peace negotiations.
## The EU’s Strategy for Ukraine: A Closer Look
The European Union finds itself in a challenging position, with the United States and Russia directly discussing Ukraine’s future. The EU is vigorously trying to maintain its relevancy in these discussions. A series of meetings among European leaders have taken place, shaping a strategy towards this issue.
EU diplomats suggest that their strategy might be to empower Ukraine in order to improve its position in eventual talks with Russia. The EU is working hard to secure a place at the negotiating table, despite the challenges.
French President Emmanuel Macron has assumed a leading role in this process, hosting the Paris discussions and representing the EU in negotiations with the U.S President. Although it seems unlikely that a European leader will participate directly in the peace talks, the EU is considering appointing a “Ukraine talks envoy.”
The EU’s focus is currently on four key areas: deploying European forces in Ukraine, enhancing the defense capabilities of Ukraine and Europe, reassessing Russian sanctions, and advancing Ukraine’s path towards EU membership.
## Funding for Ukraine’s Defense and European Defense
Ukraine has requested 66 billion euros for its defense needs this year. Initially, Ukraine had agreed to contribute 40% of this amount, with the EU and the U.S splitting the remaining 60%. But with the U.S potentially pulling back, Ukraine now proposes to cover 50% of the cost, leaving the EU to fund the other half.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has presented a plan to member states, stating that most of the funding would come from EU member states, with the remainder being sourced from frozen Russian assets within the bloc.
The EU is also exploring ways to boost its own defense spending. Creative solutions are being discussed in Brussels, such as the possibility of the European Investment Bank investing more in European defense projects and using the remaining post-COVID-19 recovery funds.
## Deploying Troops in Ukraine
The idea of deploying troops in Ukraine to oversee a potential ceasefire settlement is an issue that European nations hope could help them stay relevant in the peace talks. France, the United Kingdom, and Turkey have expressed interest in sending troops, and it’s hoped that Germany will also consider this once a new government is formed.
## Ukraine’s Potential EU Membership
While the United States has seemingly ruled out Ukrainian NATO membership, the possibility of EU membership is still very much on the table. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently stated that Ukraine could potentially join the EU by 2030, an ambitious but not impossible goal.
## Sanctions as a Negotiating Tool?
The EU recently adopted its 16th sanctions package against Russia. A new package is being discussed, but it’s unlikely to include severe measures due to concerns about rising energy prices.
## Looking Ahead
EU home affairs ministers are due to meet on March 5 to agree on the gradual implementation of the bloc’s Entry/Exit System (EES). This system will require non-EU citizens who cross any border or enter any airport or harbor in 25 EU countries and four non-EU countries to register their full name, nationality, and have their fingerprints and photograph taken.
That wraps up this week’s bulletin. Don’t hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter @RikardJozwiak, or via e-mail at [email protected].
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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