The upcoming parliamentary elections on February 9 are more than just a political event for Kosovo. These elections will influence the nation’s diplomatic future, regional balance, and standing on the global stage. Experts from the United States and the European Union believe that without aligning with international allies, Kosovo could face diplomatic challenges, isolation, or even prolonged conflict.
Kosovo’s relationships with the US and EU primarily revolve around the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, facilitated by the EU since 2011, aimed at normalizing relations between the two countries.
Prime Minister Albin Kurti has taken a firm stance since Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence, which Serbia continues to reject. His government, expected to win re-election, has taken decisive steps like replacing Serbian license plates with those from Kosovo, blocking the import of Serbian currency, and closing Serbian banks and institutions.
However, the previous US administration and the EU criticized these moves, claiming they were unilateral and have made life harder for Kosovo’s ethnic Serbs. Richard Grenell, the special envoy for the Serbia and Kosovo talks in the first Trump administration, voiced that the Kurti government was untrustworthy during both Trump and Biden’s terms, taking actions that destabilize the region.
Despite criticism, Kurti remains steadfast in his approach, even when faced with warnings from the US or EU’s suspension of financial aid worth up to 100 million euros. He asserts that these actions were essential to extend the rule of law to the north of the country, home to most of Kosovo’s ethnic Serbs, and in line with the country’s constitution.
The upcoming elections will also impact Kosovo’s relationship with the EU, particularly its diplomatic stance towards Serbia. Kosovo’s EU application, submitted in December 2022, has been stuck as it awaits consensus among the 27 EU members. Five EU nations – Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, and Spain – still do not recognize Kosovo’s independence, posing a significant hurdle.
The question of Kosovo’s membership in international organizations like Interpol or the Council of Europe is also at stake. Serbian efforts have so far thwarted EU’s promise to support Pristina’s membership in these bodies.
Kurti’s Self-Determination Movement (LVV) is the favorite to win the elections, though it’s unlikely to reach the 50 percent needed to form a government alone. If Kurti’s party does win, his firm stance may continue, potentially leading to Kosovo’s further isolation.
On the other hand, if Kurti’s party fails to secure a majority but still gets most votes, he could attempt to form a coalition government. If unsuccessful, the party with the second-highest votes would get a chance to form the government. A shift in power could redefine Kosovo’s relations with the West and potentially restart peace talks with Serbia.
It’s crucial for whoever forms the next government to maintain strong ties with Washington. Charles Kupchan, from the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, emphasizes that Kosovo cannot afford to be at odds with its allies.
In summary, the upcoming elections in Kosovo will play a significant role not just in domestic politics but also in shaping the future of its international relations.
