Greetings! Welcome to the latest update from the Eurasia brief that focuses on the increasing influence of China, spanning from Eastern Europe to Central Asia. I’m Reid Standish, your trusted correspondent from RFE/RL, and here’s the latest news I am tracking.
The Hybrid Warfare
In recent developments, another undersea cable has been cut in the Baltic Sea, specifically between Latvia and Sweden. This incident led Swedish authorities to seize the ship that was en route from Russia, due to concerns of sabotage. Similar instances of undersea cable damage have been reported in Taiwan, raising suspicions towards China.
These incidents underscore the escalating tensions in the Baltic Sea and across the Taiwan Strait. Investigations into the January 26 incident in the Baltic Sea have just been initiated. However, this is not the first occurrence; critical seabed energy and communication lines have repeatedly been damaged in the Baltic Sea.
In December, an oil tanker linked to Russia’s notorious shadow fleet was suspected of causing undersea damage with a loose anchor. A Chinese ship was implicated in a separate incident a month prior, while a Chinese-flagged ship traveling from Russia also damaged a Baltic gas pipeline in October 2023.
Taiwan has faced similar issues; a data cable undersea was damaged on January 3, and Taipei suspects it to be the work of China. Despite Beijing’s denial, Taiwanese officials attribute this to an increase in similar incidents over recent years.
Taiwan is drawing lessons from these Baltic experiences. Taipei’s Coast Guard has now compiled a blacklist of 52 Chinese-owned ships, allegedly part of Beijing’s shadow fleet, with plans to board them.
As per analysts, these hybrid tactics are alarming as they appear to be a strategy to exhaust and test the reactions of an adversary, potentially indicating a broader conflict. Furthermore, while there is no direct evidence linking Beijing and Moscow, their partnership, driven by a shared desire to alter the global order, is becoming more prominent.
Three More Stories From Eurasia
1. China’s Role in Ending Ukraine War
As efforts to end the war in Ukraine continue, could Beijing assist in bringing Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table?
2. Chinese Christian Sect Gains Ground in Romania
The Church of Almighty God, a major Christian sect in China, is gaining followers in Romania, expanding its controversial teachings and presence across Central and Eastern Europe.
3. U.S.-China Tech Race Intensifies
Following the near-closure of TikTok in the U.S., China has intensified the artificial intelligence (AI) race by launching DeepSeek, a cost-efficient alternative to other market leaders.
Across The Supercontinent
Serbia’s Prime Minister Milos Vucevic has resigned amidst mass protests demanding accountability for a fatal accident in Novi Sad. Taiwan is facing Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported chips, pharmaceuticals, and steel. India and China have agreed to resume direct flights after nearly five years.
One Thing To Watch
A leading Chinese official has dismissed the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s suggestion that the COVID-19 pandemic originated from a lab leak.
That’s all for now. Feel free to share your questions, comments, or tips. Until next time, Reid Standish. If you found this briefing informative and want to ensure you don’t miss the next one, you can subscribe here.
