As the next phase of the Ukrainian conflict unfolds, the role of US President Donald Trump remains uncertain. Trump, who pledged to be a “peacemaker” during his inauguration and promised a swift resolution to the Ukrainian conflict, now holds a considerable sway over its outcome.
While Trump’s pledge for peace was welcomed, his transactional diplomacy approach has stoked fears of a potential deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, bypassing Ukraine. Marie Dumoulin, a former French diplomat at the European Council on Foreign Relations, voiced concerns that Trump might impose a deal on Ukraine under the threat of withdrawing US aid.
Trump’s strategy to end the conflict is still developing, with two primary paths laid out by analysts. One approach could force Ukraine to negotiate by pulling back crucial military support, leading to a peace deal under unfavorable conditions, a situation dreaded by Kyiv and most Western capitals. Alternatively, Trump could intensify pressure on Russia with new sanctions and increased military assistance for Ukraine.
As Trump explores his options, both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy have indicated their willingness to negotiate. The sticking point, however, lies in the compromises that both Kyiv and Moscow are willing to make.
Trump’s strategy also includes leveraging his ties with Putin and China’s Xi Jinping. By engaging both leaders, Trump aims to use personal diplomacy to bring the war to an end. Trump’s national-security adviser, Mike Waltz, underscored the importance of establishing a dialogue to clinch a deal during an interview in January.
Trump’s negotiation tactics aren’t limited to diplomacy alone. He might exercise economic leverage by imposing harsher sanctions on Russia’s economy. The Biden administration already imposed significant sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, and Trump could potentially add to these measures.
Moreover, Trump’s treasury secretary pick, Scott Bessent, has expressed his full support for intensifying sanctions on Russian oil producers to bring Moscow to the negotiation table.
Ending the war will require concessions from both Russia and Ukraine, and sanctions could play a crucial role in this negotiation, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Ultimately, the path Trump chooses will define the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict, especially since he previously hinted at pulling financial support for Ukraine, criticizing the Biden administration for its excessive defense funding. Dumoulin stated that Trump’s primary options are to accept Moscow’s conditions or seek to change them.
