Welcome back to our Eurasia update, a bi-weekly newsletter focusing on China’s rising influence that spans from Eastern Europe to Central Asia. I’m your correspondent, Reid Standish, and here’s the latest news I’m tracking.
In today’s spotlight: A Baltic Alert
Gabrielius Landsbergis, the ex-foreign minister of Lithuania, has issued an unmistakable warning to those who believe China can play a role in resolving the Ukraine conflict.
In an interview with the French international affairs platform, Geopolitique.eu, Landsbergis dismissed the notion, stating, “China is biding its time, waiting for a moment of vulnerability to step in with ‘solutions’. I fear that some in Europe might accept this as it’s an inexpensive alternative to us taking action, much like how one might opt for a cheaper Chinese car.”
Landsbergis was referring to a recent conversation between outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and The New York Times, where Blinken attributed the absence of a nuclear war in Ukraine to China.
“If we accept that China, which seems to be supporting Russia and therefore opposing the countries backing Ukraine, is currently the guarantor of nuclear deterrence on our continent; that would mark the start of a new paradigm and could be a dangerous error and a failure,” Landsbergis warned.
The Importance of this Warning:
With the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Europe grappling with a shifting geopolitical reality, Landsbergis’s cautionary message becomes even more relevant.
Trump’s threats of tariffs and his unconventional approach towards Europe have raised concerns in European capitals. At the same time, there are discussions about adopting a more favorable stance towards Beijing to counterbalance the Trump administration.
On January 14, Chinese leader Xi Jinping had a conversation with European Council President Antonio Costa, initiating what many analysts view as a charm offensive from Beijing towards the continent.
However, while Trump’s relationship with Brussels and other capitals might be tense, Beijing is also dealing with a new set of challenges compared to when U.S. President Joe Biden assumed office.
China’s endorsement of Russia amid the Ukraine war has strained its relations with Europe. Brussels is taking targeted action against Chinese companies in some sectors, a trend likely to persist.
EU High Representative Kaja Kallas has also expressed severe criticism of China, particularly concerning its position on the Ukraine war and its long-term implications.
Landsbergis shared similar views, highlighting that “Ukraine is central to what will happen in the future” between China and Taiwan.
He stated, “One can imagine a scenario where China imposes a blockade, even a partial one, on Taiwan and they resist and we try to lift it, then China could use the Russian playbook. I don’t think we collectively understand how reckless it is.”
More Eurasian Stories:
1. Taliban’s Attempt to Attract Chinese Investment:
My Afghan colleagues at RFE/RL’s Radio Azadi and I reported on a new road constructed by the Taliban in northeast Afghanistan to enhance connectivity with neighboring China.
The Wakhan Corridor’s first section of the road was completed in early 2024, and the Taliban is planning to extend these connections to open up more trade with China.
However, the main questions remain over whether the militants can finally quell China’s longstanding security concerns.
2. Trump, Greenland, China, and the Arctic:
Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump has stirred controversy by not ruling out the use of force to gain control of Greenland.
Trump’s pursuit throws a spotlight on the intricate national-security landscape in the Arctic that involves the United States, China, Russia, and other players.
3. U.S. Energy Sanctions Impact Chinese, Indian Russian Oil Purchases:
Chinese and Indian refiners are seeking new fuel supplies as they adjust to stringent new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers.
The sanctions have resulted in a surge in prices and driven Chinese refiners back to sellers of non-restricted oil.
Beyond Eurasia:
Kyiv’s China Consultations: Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has said that 2024 was a year of “developing” political dialogue in Beijing.
Parting Shots: In a speech at the State Department, Biden claimed the United States has extended its lead over competitors like Russia and China.
The China Connection: As Russian forces have intensified their advances in eastern Ukraine, they’re being aided by a new tool on the battlefield: drones that use fiber-optic cables.
One Thing To Watch: Trade between China and Russia reached a record high in 2024, indicating that Beijing and Moscow’s efforts to enhance their relationship are bearing fruit.
Until next time,
Reid Standish
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