Surrounded by the American flag, President-elect Donald Trump listed a series of tech magnates who made their way to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida to meet him in the aftermath of his successful election campaign.
“Everyone wants to be in my circle,” Trump announced to the press in December.
As his January 20 inauguration nears, Trump has also interacted with leaders of European allies looking to establish their standing ahead of his second term in office.
While it’s customary for foreign leaders to seek the attention of an American president, Trump’s unconventional approach to foreign policy suggests that the stakes are higher this time.
New faces could emerge as Trump’s primary European confidants, but they might find that Washington’s interests occasionally diverge from their own.
The first European leader to visit Trump in Florida following the November 5 election was Viktor Orban. The Hungarian Prime Minister has maintained a close relationship with Trump, being the first European leader to support his 2016 presidential run. This bond is built on shared ideologies and personal rapport.
However, whether this bond will translate into tangible benefits is debatable. Trump has warned of imposing hefty tariffs on European Union goods.
Automobile import tariffs could impact Hungary, a country where approximately 12 percent of all manufacturing jobs are in the automotive industry. This includes Chinese companies, which Trump has often criticized.
Despite this, for Orban, who hails from a country of 10 million people, having a strong connection with the world’s most influential leader is undoubtedly a status symbol as he confronts domestic political challenges.
Officials in Budapest have shared with RFE/RL’s Hungarian Service that Trump has sought Orban’s insight on resolving Russia’s nearly three-year conflict with Ukraine in a series of phone calls since his U.S. election victory.
Orban, who is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has positioned himself as a diplomat who can help broker a peace agreement.
However, political analyst Botond Feledy notes that this doesn’t necessarily mean Hungary will be significantly involved in Ukraine peace talks. He suggests that Viktor Orban might receive a symbolic gesture, such as hosting a round of negotiations in Budapest.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also met Trump in Florida in January. Despite being the second to visit, Meloni may prove to be a more influential ally than Orban. While Orban is somewhat isolated within the EU, Meloni is well-networked.
Many members of the 27-nation bloc are hopeful that she can influence Trump’s stance on key issues. Ukraine is a major concern, as Meloni has consistently supported Kyiv. Tariffs are another contentious issue.
Like Orban, she shares Trump’s hard-line stance on immigration. Trump has praised her as a “fantastic woman” who has “taken Europe by storm.”
However, Italy falls short of NATO’s defense-spending target of 2 percent of GDP, achieving just 1.49 percent in 2024, according to estimates. If Meloni urges Trump to continue supporting Ukraine, he may ask her to contribute more financially.
Olivier Costa of Sciences Po in Paris points out that Italy has greatly benefitted from the so-called “American umbrella” over Europe. He also mentions potential U.S. tariffs as a potential point of divergence in interests.
“Who will consume all the French and Italian wine? Who will purchase all those handbags? The economic impact would be substantial,” Costa states.
French President Emmanuel Macron also ensured an early meeting with Trump. He hosted Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the grand reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris in December.
It was an initial attempt to shape Trump’s policy towards Ukraine, yet there is no evidence yet of any effect. Trump has threatened to cut aid to Ukraine and vowed to swiftly end the conflict, although he has not specified how.
Macron’s political standing at home is shaky, as he faces an ongoing political crisis after losing his parliamentary majority in the elections. His staunch critic and potential successor, Marine Le Pen, bears more of a resemblance to Trump’s political style.
Still, Macron holds significant influence as the leader of a nuclear-powered nation with the EU’s strongest military and a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
Much like Trump, he has also strived to maintain open lines of communication with Putin. If peace talks on Ukraine commence, he is likely to do his best to participate.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s predecessor, Theresa May, was the first to visit the White House when Trump was initially elected in 2016. It’s a tradition for British Prime Ministers, though it’s uncertain whether this will continue this time.
Starmer is politically opposed to Trump, being a reserved social democrat, and has been the subject of weeks of trolling from Trump’s billionaire supporter Elon Musk.
The international influence of Britain may have been reduced by Brexit, but it still holds some of the same military and diplomatic advantages as France.
Starmer’s Foreign Secretary, Daniel Lammy, has spent months cultivating a personal relationship with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, pointing out their shared working-class backgrounds and Christian faith as common ground.
Starmer also hopes that Trump’s British heritage – his mother was Scottish – may play a role. While France offers the grandeur of Bastille Day parades, Britain can offer tea with the royal family.
Ian Bond of the Center for European Reform noted that “Starmer and the Labour Party have been trying to build links to Trump world and now to the Trump administration in waiting.”
He continued, “I think you can see the appointment of Peter Mandelson as the next ambassador in that light. Somebody who is the ultimate sort of smooth political operator. Will it work? They’re not natural soulmates on a lot of issues. But equally, Trump does seem to have a sort of soft spot for the U.K.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who faces elections in February, may not be in office for long.
His predecessor, Angela Merkel, had a challenging relationship with Trump, appearing uncomfortable in his presence as he seemed to ignore her on one occasion.
His likely successor, Friedrich Merz, might also find it challenging. His election manifesto talks of defense spending of “at least” 2 percent of GDP — a figure unlikely to impress Washington as Germany already spends this much.
Perhaps more importantly, Germany has a 60-billion-dollar trade surplus with the United States, a fact that Trump has repeatedly criticized. Tariffs are again a significant concern.
Musk has also made his presence known in German politics, supporting the far-right Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) party, which Merz has refused to collaborate with.
Still, Trump has not backed these comments, and Germany remains a key partner.
Merz remains optimistic, suggesting that the EU should make a renewed effort for a free-trade agreement with Washington. The previous attempt was abandoned during Trump’s first term in office.