Despite facing unusual strains, Hong Kong’s economic outlook remains promising. This optimism stems from a comprehensive review of the city’s potential, based on my extensive experience and understanding as a seasoned business leader, investor, and resident.

My evaluation framework is tripartite: an examination of potential risks and opportunities, leadership quality, and effective implementation.

The risks and opportunities of Hong Kong are tied to the evolving nature of its external and internal environments over the next half-decade. The term “leadership” pertains to the caliber of individuals entrusted with fiscal decision-making and implementation in the city, placing Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po under the microscope and emphasizing the need to review his performance. Lastly, “implementation” highlights the importance of a consistent strategic plan set out by the leadership.

Despite these elements, there’s a noticeable resilience shown by a handful of critical financial indicators within Hong Kong.

Bank deposits in the city have experienced a healthy growth, with a 5% increase in 2023 and an additional 6% rise in the first eleven months of 2024. Furthermore, the Hang Seng Index, a significant barometer of Hong Kong’s stock market, surged by a whopping 18% in the previous year. The assets managed in Hong Kong surpassed the US$4 trillion mark in 2023, reflecting a considerable 30% hike from 2018. Finally, according to InvestHK, over 500 companies chose Hong Kong as their preferred destination for business expansion or acceleration in the region in 2024.

So, while Hong Kong’s public finances may be feeling the squeeze at the moment, there are compelling reasons to maintain a positive long-term view on the city’s economic prosperity. This assessment is not just for those looking to invest but is a general overview of Hong Kong’s resilient financial landscape.