In the final stretch of December, the newly appointed Iranian Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, made his inaugural visit to China. This trip occurred during one of the most severe economic and security crises Iran has faced since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, prompting a wave of interest from Chinese online users. The prevailing sentiment among Chinese citizens was critical of Iran, yet for distinctly different reasons.
One perspective suggests that Iran’s incompetence is wearing thin on China’s patience with their friendship. Concurrently with Araghchi’s visit, a significant portion of Chinese social media users expressed their derision and opposition on the Iranian Embassy in China’s social media page. Some even suggested that Iran should resort to developing nuclear weapons as a countermeasure against the United States and Israel.
Contrastingly, the second viewpoint indicates that Iran’s recent shortcomings in the Middle East are a testament to its flawed foreign policy, jeopardizing China’s interests. Instead of urging Iran to pursue nuclear armament, these Chinese social media users propose Iran should emulate China’s historical approach: revising its policies and avoiding military conflict. They believe this would be advantageous for both Iran and the safeguarding of China’s strategic interests.
In 2014, during Araghchi’s tenure as Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran, he visited Beijing and the topic of Iran’s nuclear capabilities was a global hotbed issue. When asked about his stance on the Six-Party Talks led by China to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, Araghchi confidently stated that Iran’s case was different, as they were not seeking nuclear weapons.
However, during Araghchi’s recent visit to China as Foreign Minister, the Iranian nuclear issue was once again a central discussion point on the agenda. This highlighted the shared similarity with the North Korean nuclear dilemma: both issues have been under scrutiny for over 15 years without any resolution in sight. With Iran’s proxies in the Middle East weakening and the security landscape around Iran deteriorating due to military conflicts, Iran’s inclination to develop nuclear weapons for security assurance might be stronger than ever.
Despite China’s positive attitude during their meeting with Araghchi and their keenness to expand comprehensive cooperation with Iran, there is a palpable concern among the Chinese public that Iran might become another Syria.
In the face of mounting internal and external pressures, Iran is in a precarious situation. The imminent collapse of the Iranian regime is a major concern for China, considering the significant economic cooperation projects between the two countries. Hence, aiding Iran in mitigating these serious risks is crucial for China’s strategic interests.
Despite some Chinese online users championing Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, it’s clear that the Chinese government would prefer otherwise. Instead, China’s own history of navigating domestic and geopolitical crisis could serve as an important lesson for Iran.
In the end, Iran should consider diverting its resources from supporting proxies in the Middle East to investing in domestic welfare, education, and infrastructure. This would not only enhance the well-being of its citizens but also help stabilize its economy—something China has successfully achieved.
Considering the changing dynamics in the Middle East, China has been strategically planning ways to protect its interests. This includes facilitating Iran’s reconciliation with its neighbors and encouraging Iran to improve its relations with the U.S. and Israel.
If Iran chooses to develop nuclear weapons as a misguided response to its pressures, a confrontation with the U.S. and Israel is likely. In such a scenario, China would need to prepare a comprehensive strategy to protect its own interests, particularly if regime change in Tehran becomes a reality.
