The Trump administration has a choice to make – to take a strong stand against China or to adopt a firm policy towards allies – but it’s highly unlikely that it can maintain both positions. This was highlighted in a previous issue of The Diplomat Magazine, focusing on how U.S. policies have far-reaching effects on Asia-Pacific nations in various aspects, including security, economics, and domestic politics. Hence, the outcomes of the recent U.S. presidential election were of significant interest to these countries.
Kelly A. Grieco, a Senior Fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Security Program at the Stimson Center, based in Washington, D.C., provides insights into how the Asia-Pacific region has reacted to Donald Trump’s return to the presidency after a four-year gap. As per Grieco, Trump is now a recognized figure, known for both his policies and personality, leaving no room for surprise or crisis. U.S. allies are prepared for another term under Trump’s presidency.
So, how did Asia react to Trump’s return to power, particularly U.S. allies and competitors like China?
Eight years ago, when Trump first emerged victorious, the global reaction was a blend of shock, disappointment, and worry. U.S. allies were thrown into a frenzy, organizing urgent meetings to devise strategies for Trump’s “America First” approach to foreign policy and trade. His claims that Japan and South Korea were taking advantage of U.S. security guarantees and should pay more for hosting U.S. forces left these nations unsettled. The future seemed uncertain.
This time, however, there is no sense of shock or crisis. U.S. allies have accepted the possibility of Trump’s second term. Policymakers from Australia, Japan, and South Korea, determined not to be caught off guard again, have been actively engaging with Trump’s core team over the past year.
Trump’s policies and personality traits are now well-understood. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has resumed his golf practice, anticipating the revival of “golf diplomacy” under Trump. The likelihood of increased pressure from Trump on trade and his unpredictable dealings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un do raise concerns among allies, but there’s no panic.
The situation is a bit more complex in Manila. While Philippine officials are confident that their alliance with the U.S. will remain strong, Trump’s election has probably stirred up worries about future ties. After years of tense relations under his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. sought stronger defense ties with the Biden administration to counter China’s territorial ambitions in the South China Sea.
China, on the other hand, is adopting a “wait and see approach.” President Xi Jinping, while attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru, extended an olive branch to Trump’s incoming administration. He expressed China’s readiness to work with the new U.S. administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation, and manage differences. However, Xi also highlighted some non-negotiable aspects for Beijing, including Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China’s development path, and its right to growth. Beijing appears prepared to face whatever comes its way from the Trump White House.
