Bitcoin (BTC) is currently on a strong upward trajectory, with its value hovering close to the significant $100,000 milestone. As the final day of November trading draws near, the crypto market is keenly observing how BTC’s monthly candle will close. The recent expiry of bitcoin options worth $9 billion has given a slight boost to the token, pushing it beyond $96,000.
According to data from CoinGlass, November has been a powerful month for BTC, marking one of the highest increases in several years. The cryptocurrency has seen a surge of over 36%, making it one of the best performing months since October 2021. Only three other months have outperformed November: February 2024 (44%), January 2023 (40%), and October 2021 (40%). The significant performance in November is largely attributed to the outcome of the recent U.S. presidential election, won by Donald Trump.
Despite the impressive growth, the month isn’t over yet, and BTC has a couple of days to potentially surpass these benchmarks. On a three-month scale, BTC has seen a rise of 51% with December yet to be factored in. Historically, December has averaged a return of around 5%. The fourth quarter of 2024 has stood out as the strongest since Q1, which recorded a return of 69%.
The question now is not if, but when BTC will break the $100,000 barrier. The token is well on its way to an all-time high monthly close. Analyst Caleb Franzen suggests that the current bull market still has potential for further growth, judging from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the BTCUSD monthly chart. The RSI isn’t “overheated” yet, indicating more upside in the coming months.
The current BTC market structure is reminiscent of Q4 2020, which also witnessed strong growth in October and November, followed by a correction. During the latter part of 2020, BTC was able to break the $10,000 barrier and reached $60,000 by April 2021.
Data from Glassnode reveals that when BTC’s value is above the short-term holder’s realized price (STHRP), it generally means the market is bullish. Like in Q4 2020, BTC could continue to rise, using the STHRP as a support level. The STHRP denotes the average on-chain purchase price for coins held outside exchange reserves and moved within the last 155 days.
A growing divergence between the realized price and the long-term holder realized price (LTHRP) suggests that new participants are entering the market while long-term holders are realizing profits. Interestingly, a small data point suggests that BTC could hit $100,000 on Nov. 29, exactly seven years and one day after BTC first hit $10,000. This pattern of growth could be an encouraging sign for those interested in investing in bitcoin.
