Following Lai Ching-te’s election as Taiwan’s President on May 20 and again after the National Day on October 10, China implemented military drills near Taiwan. These drills, namely United Sword-2024A and United Sword-2024B, were of a slightly smaller scale than the ones conducted by China after the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022. The October exercises did not take place near Taiwan’s Kinmen Island, possibly due to the resumed interactions between China and the island. Therefore, these military drills could be seen as somewhat restrained.
The policy of China towards Taiwan is centered around the notion of “peaceful reunification,” but it also keeps the door open for the application of force to achieve the desired unity. As per the “One China” principle, China’s fundamental strategy is to persuade the acceptance of the 1992 Consensus and One Country, Two Systems policy in Taiwanese society. It aims to foster “patriotic reunification forces” within the people and private corporations to facilitate reunification. The objective is to accomplish reunification through the United Front Work Department’s methods of the CCP rather than through KMT’s Communist Cooperation.
China is tactically applying pressure on Taiwanese society by showcasing force through exercises, economic pressure, cyber-attacks, disinformation, and cutting undersea cables connecting remote islands under the disguise of “accidents.” Concurrently, China is also promoting economic and social integration via Fujian Province, encouraging Taiwanese investment and interaction with China. In a nutshell, Beijing is striving to nudge Taiwan towards reunification.
In the broader perspective, it’s evident that China’s military drills are designed to intimidate Taiwanese society. China hasn’t discarded the possibility of an attack on Taiwan, and it needs to prove its readiness for the same. This is because Beijing has to display its military capability and preparedness to use force for reunification whenever necessary.
Sugiura Yasuyuki, a Senior Fellow at Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies, believes that United Sword has three objectives. The first is to normalize military action. The People’s Liberation Army started conducting United Sword exercises in 2023, and they have already conducted two drills in 2024. The second objective is to progressively advance preparations for an actual invasion. The third objective is to publicize the exercises domestically and globally to promote the narrative that Taiwan is a part of China and reunification is imminent. This exerts further pressure on Taiwanese society.
Despite the fact that China perceives the Taiwan issue as an internal one, it hasn’t shied away from showcasing its military prowess. However, the international community doesn’t always agree with this viewpoint. China’s consistent military drills likely portray the image of a country capable of altering the status quo by force. If this continues, the global community may start equating China and Russia. Will these drills successfully cultivate “patriotic unification forces” within Taiwan? How will China gauge their effectiveness? If China deems the drills ineffective, will it pause military exercises or increase its efforts? While military exercises serve as a grand performance for China, how the global audience perceives it is beyond its control.
KAWASHIMA Shin is a professor at the University of Tokyo. This piece is ideal for individuals interested in investing or those keen on global political scenarios, but the primary focus of the article remains geopolitical analysis.
