With Bitcoin once again venturing into uncharted price territory, market observers and enthusiasts are asking a critical question: have we already seen retail Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) or is the retail boom from previous bullish cycles still waiting in the wings? By analyzing data from active Bitcoin addresses, historical market trends, and other key indicators, we will gauge the current state of the Bitcoin market and what it might hint about the imminent future.

Mounting Curiosity

A clear indicator of retail interest is the creation of new Bitcoin addresses. Historically, rapid upswings in new addresses often signal the initiation of a bull run as fresh retail investors swarm the market. However, in the recent months, the rise in new addresses hasn’t been as drastic as anticipated. Last year, we saw a single day skyrocket with around 791,000 new addresses, indicating substantial retail interest. Comparatively, the current figures are significantly lower, albeit with a slight increase in new addresses recently.

Google Trends, a reliable gauge of public interest, also echoes this restrained curiosity. While the search term “Bitcoin” has seen a rise in the past month, it pales in comparison to the spikes in 2021 and 2017. This suggests that retail investors are beginning to show interest again, yet without the intense excitement characteristic of FOMO-driven markets.

Transfer of Ownership

We are currently witnessing a minor transition of Bitcoin ownership from long-term holders to newer, short-term investors. This subtle shift in supply could suggest the onset of a new market phase, where seasoned holders start to cash in their profits and sell to new market players. However, the overall number of coins changing hands remains low, suggesting that long-term holders aren’t ready to part with their Bitcoin in large volumes just yet.

Looking back at the most recent bull run in 2020-2021, we saw significant outflows from long-term holders to newer investors, which spurred a subsequent price rally. At present, this shift is minor, and long-term holders seem relatively unperturbed by current price levels, choosing to hold onto their Bitcoin despite market gains. This reluctance to sell implies a confidence in further upward potential.

Spot-Driven Surge

A standout feature of Bitcoin’s latest surge is its spot-driven characteristic, contrasting with previous bull runs heavily dependent on leveraged positions. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has only witnessed minor increases, a stark contrast to previous peaks. For example, open interest was considerable before the FTX crash in 2022. A spot-driven market, devoid of excessive leverage, tends to be more stable and robust, as fewer investors face the risk of forced liquidation.

Large-Scale Accumulation

Interestingly, while the number of retail addresses hasn’t grown significantly, “whale” addresses holding at least 100 BTC have shown an increase. Over the last couple of weeks, wallets with large BTC holdings have added tens of thousands of coins, translating to billions of dollars in value. This rise signals confidence amongst Bitcoin’s largest investors that the current price levels can continue to climb, even as Bitcoin hits record highs.

In previous bull cycles, we saw whales exit or reduce their positions near market peaks, a trend we’re not witnessing currently. This ongoing accumulation by seasoned holders is a potent bullish indicator, suggesting a belief in the market’s long-term potential.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin’s rally to record highs has sparked renewed interest, the usual signs of widespread retail FOMO are not yet apparent. The muted retail interest suggests that we might just be at the start of this rally. Long-term holders remain optimistic, whales are accumulating, and leverage is modest, all signs of a healthy and sustainable rally.

As we progress through this bull cycle, the market structure indicates that a larger, retail-driven surge may still be in store. If this retail interest comes to fruition, it could catapult Bitcoin to unprecedented heights.

For a deeper dive into this subject, check out a recent YouTube video titled “Has Retail Bitcoin FOMO Begun?”