On Friday, China released a report indicating a strong growth in retail sales and a decrease in real estate investment for October. These statistics suggest that China’s recent efforts to stimulate economic growth have been successful in boosting specific sectors of its struggling economy.
Year-on-year, retail sales saw an increase of 4.8%, surpassing the 3.8% prediction from a Reuters survey. This rise showcases a significant improvement from the 3.2% growth experienced in September.
However, industrial production saw a smaller increase of 5.3% compared to the previous year, which was lower than the anticipated growth of 5.6%. Fixed asset investment for the year also rose by 3.4%, slightly below the 3.5% forecast.
Notably, investment in real estate during the period from January to October witnessed a 10.3% decrease from the previous year. This decline was steeper than the 10.1% drop observed from January to September, indicating a deepening slump in China’s property market. This is the most significant decline since August 2021, when a 10.9% drop was reported.
Fu Linghui, Spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, reiterated China’s commitment to stopping the decline in real estate during a press conference on Friday. Linghui stated that the sector was showing “active improvement”, according to a CNBC translation of his statement in Chinese.
Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL, predicts that real estate investment would stabilize slightly in the next 12 to 18 months. Pang noted a narrowing decline in new property sales in October compared to September.
Meanwhile, infrastructure and manufacturing investments saw a modest increase in October compared to September. The urban unemployment rate dropped slightly to 5%, down from 5.1% in September.
The Bureau of Statistics attributed the improvement in key economic indicators to the “acceleration” of existing policies and the implementation of new policies in October. However, it cautioned against persistent domestic and international headwinds and emphasized the need to double policy implementation efforts to achieve the annual growth target.
In response to these challenges, Chinese authorities have been proactive in announcing stimulus measures since late September, leading to a stock rally. The central bank has slashed interest rates and extended existing real estate support.
On the fiscal front, the Ministry of Finance recently announced a five-year program worth 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to address local government debt issues and hinted at possible additional fiscal support next year.
Manufacturing surveys show a boost in activity in the previous month, while exports experienced their fastest growth rate in over a year. Conversely, imports fell as domestic demand remained weak.
While Beijing’s stimulus measures have not directly targeted consumers, the Golden Week holiday in early October confirmed a trend of more cautious consumer spending. However, sales during the Singles Day shopping festival exceeded low expectations.
China’s gross domestic product grew by 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year, with a target of around 5% growth set for the year.