Intriguing speculations arise regarding what Donald Trump may remember from his initial term as President, and how it could influence his decisions if he were to return to office. It’s noteworthy that during his first term, Trump showed a favorable stance towards Vietnam, influenced by American entrepreneurs in the country and lobbyists hired by Hanoi. Former Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc was among the first global leaders to congratulate Trump on his 2016 election victory and was the initial Southeast Asian leader to visit the Trump White House.
Trump’s first term saw him visit Vietnam twice, in 2017 and 2019, more than any other Southeast Asian nation. He facilitated the inaugural sales of U.S. military equipment to Vietnam and chose Hanoi as the location for his unsuccessful negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2019. Vietnam emerged from these talks with an enhanced reputation.
However, Trump’s perspective on Vietnam took a negative turn in 2019 when he labeled the country as the “worst offender” in terms of trade practices. His administration initiated sanctions against Vietnam for alleged currency manipulation, but these were immediately halted by the Biden administration.
Nevertheless, the prospect of another Trump presidency has been a source of anxiety for Hanoi, despite their leaders extending congratulations for his recent victory. Trump’s campaign promises included imposing a tariff of 10-20 percent on all imports from all nations. This proposed policy could potentially affect Vietnam significantly, given its status as the largest exporter to the U.S. in Southeast Asia and the second most trade-dependent country in the region after Singapore.
Recent estimates by rating agency Fitch suggest that a second Trump term could potentially reduce Vietnam’s annual GDP growth by 1 percent by 2028. Additionally, Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S., which stood at $55 billion in 2019, increased to $104 billion last year. There is considerable evidence suggesting that China is currently rerouting more goods via Vietnam to the U.S. to avoid tariffs and sanctions.
However, Trump’s disregard for democracy and human rights could potentially make him a more compatible partner for the current Vietnamese leadership. With power in Hanoi now divided between the public security apparatus and the military, Trump’s inclination towards authoritarian figures could work in favor of the Vietnamese government.
Despite this, Trump’s focus on his family wealth is well-known, raising questions about his business interests in Vietnam. The Trump Organization recently signed a deal with Vietnamese real estate developer Kinh Bac City Development to construct a $1.5 billion golf course and resort in Vietnam’s Hung Yen province. This development could potentially lead to a conflict of interest under a potential second Trump term.
Whether the proposed golf resort becomes a reality or not, it’s a strategic move by Hanoi and its influencers to secure an investment from the Trump Organization. This could potentially give Vietnam’s most influential faction leverage in the next U.S. administration.
