On October 16, a furniture workshop, sawmill, and olive press in Syria’s Idlib Province were targeted by Russian air strikes, leading to the death of 10 civilians, including a child. This information was reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, based in the UK, and the White Helmets civil defense force.
Following this, on October 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin projected an image of a peace advocate in the Middle East during a press conference with journalists from the BRICS nations. He expressed Moscow’s readiness to intervene to halt the “terrible strikes on civilian targets in the Gaza Strip”. Putin expressed hope for de-escalation of the conflict, a sentiment which seems at odds with the lethal Russian bombings in Syria.
Analysts suggest that while Russia may indeed wish to avoid a larger-scale war, the current level of unrest in the Middle East is favorable for its national interests. According to Thanassis Cambanis, director of Century International, the chaos and disorder in the region have allowed Russia to strategize more effectively.
Several factors contribute to why the current instability in the Middle East benefits Moscow. One of these is the “distraction dividend”, as termed by Hanna Notte, an expert on Russian foreign policy. The ongoing crisis draws global attention away from Ukraine, where Russian forces are inflicting daily civilian casualties amid a brutal invasion.
In addition, the crisis forces the U.S. and its allies to allocate resources to the Middle East, while simultaneously attempting to restrain Russia in a European war that could have significant implications for the West. Putin also capitalizes on the propaganda benefits, portraying the Ukrainian conflict as a cultural battle with the U.S. and the EU, and trying to rally global support for Russia.
Since the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Notte states that the Russian policy in the Middle East has been primarily driven by the confrontation with the West over Ukraine. Russia has been using the Middle East crisis and the war in Gaza as a means to criticize Washington, a move which, according to Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, is damaging to the U.S.’s reputation both domestically and internationally.
However, Russia’s sway in the Middle East is not limitless. While it currently holds a significant role in the region, a larger-scale war could expose its vulnerabilities. The war against Ukraine has led to Moscow’s increasing alignment with anti-Western forces in the region, such as Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Huthi rebels in Yemen.
Despite this, Russia is cautiously navigating its relationships in the Middle East, so as not to entirely alienate Israel or the nations of the Persian Gulf. Moreover, it is unlikely that Russia could persuade regional countries to turn against the U.S. Despite their anti-American unity, Russia and Iran have distinctly different systems and worldviews.
In conclusion, while Russia seeks to maintain the current balance in the Middle East, increased pressure on the ‘Axis of Resistance’ could lead to Russia offering more support to Iranian allies such as the Huthis and Hezbollah.
