Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a press briefing at the European Council Summit in Brussels on October 17, alleged that about 10,000 North Korean soldiers stand ready to back Russia in its conflict with Ukraine.
In the days that followed, both Ukraine and South Korea supported these claims with proof. The Ukrainian intelligence agency unveiled a video showing North Korean soldiers at a Russian military camp, apparently waiting to be outfitted with uniforms. A document in Korean detailing uniform sizes was also produced as evidence. South Korea’s intelligence agency corroborated Zelenskyy’s claim, stating that 12,000 North Korean troops, inclusive of 1,500 special forces, are poised for deployment, offering satellite images as proof.
After the presentation of this evidence, South Korea’s First Deputy National Security Adviser, Kim Tae-hyo, demanded North Korea’s immediate withdrawal from Russia on October 21. He warned of South Korea’s potential retaliation by supplying weapons to Ukraine, starting with defensive weapons and potentially escalating to offensive ones.
“We will not remain passive in the face of further military collaboration between North Korea and Russia, and will take a firm stand against it in alliance with the international community,” Kim stated.
In contrast, the United States and NATO have taken a more cautious approach to the recent allegations of North Korean troop deployments to Ukraine. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, after Zelenskyy’s claim, expressed concern but was unable to verify the deployment; NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte also didn’t confirm it.
On October 23, Austin confirmed that North Korean troops have been sent to Russian territory, but not to the battlefield. He added that their roles remain unclear. NATO has taken a similar stance.
So far, both North Korea and Russia have denied these deployment claims. North Korean Ambassador to the United Nations Kim Sung dismissed them as baseless rumors, while Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova labeled the claims as “fake and exaggerated information.”
Given these developments, South Korea should not hastily decide to involve itself in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The South Korean government should carefully analyze the intelligence information, the security landscape, and potential consequences on the Korean Peninsula before sending weapons to Ukraine.
The South Korean government should reevaluate the evidence from its own intelligence agency and Ukraine. South Korea relies on U.S. intelligence assets, including spy satellites and planes, for data. Once the data is received, South Korea and the U.S. work together to analyze and interpret it.
South Korea also needs more time to ascertain the purpose of the North Korean personnel deployed. Even if North Korea sent combat fighters, questions remain regarding the actual impact on the security landscape of the Korean Peninsula.
South Korea’s plans to send weapons to Ukraine could impact Seoul’s readiness and conventional deterrence against North Korea.
The third reason for caution is the lack of full interoperability between North Korea and Russia.
Lastly, the legal basis for the deployment from both North Korea and Russia remains uncertain.
While intelligence information from Ukraine and South Korea cannot be entirely dismissed, there are still uncertainties about the scope and impact of North Korean military personnel in the Russia-Ukraine war. South Korea’s potential arms sales to Ukraine raise two significant concerns for the security of the Korean Peninsula.
Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin and Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, have implicitly declared South Korea’s direct lethal weapon provisions to Ukraine a red line, warning that it could lead Russia to provide conventional and nuclear assistance to North Korea.
South Korea’s decision could also heighten North Korea’s threat perception.
Instead of rushing into a decision on sending weapons to Ukraine, South Korea must engage in broader consultation with its allies and thoroughly reassess its intelligence information. By adopting a measured, prudent approach, South Korea can avoid unintended consequences and escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
