As we cross the threshold of Labor Day and make our way into autumn, traditionally, this is the time when political campaigns start to intensify. While the off-year elections in November will undoubtedly draw some interest, the primary focus remains on the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we delve into a question that will be revisited as we approach the Iowa caucuses in four months: Is it a given that Donald Trump will be the nominee? If it’s not a sure thing, how can we estimate the chances of him winning the GOP primary in a historical context?

Furthermore, we have initial outcomes from two special primary elections and we engage in a lively discussion on the merits and drawbacks of polling, focusing on a contentious and traditional issue: internal polls.

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The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is aired every Monday and Thursday. We encourage new listeners to help others discover our show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. If you have any comments, queries or suggestions for our “good polling vs. bad polling” discussion, feel free to drop us an email, tweet to us or leave a comment.