“Middle East Observer,” a Tehran-based, pro-regime outlet operating on Telegram, leaked two highly sensitive intelligence documents last week, according to reports. As per Iranian law, all media channels in Tehran are pro-regime. The documents, which originated from the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), shed light on Israel’s plans to retaliate against Iranian missile attacks.
However, the documents have not been re-published here, though interested parties can find them via provided links. In a tightly controlled information ecosystem like Iran, the Observer could only have published these documents with the regime’s consent.
This leaked information is extremely valuable for Iran in preparing its defenses. One of the leaked documents is classified above top secret. NOFORN, the headline of the document, implies that it cannot be shared with foreign governments. It gives credence to the Observer’s assertion that the leak originated from individuals or organizations within the United States.
The documents detail an Israeli “large force employment exercise” conducted on October 15 and 16. The Observer published these documents on Telegram on October 18. This leak served as a warning to Tehran about an impending Israeli strike, detailing the types of weapons to be used and the probable targets – primarily Iranian air defense sites and long-range radars.
These documents offer a detailed account of Israeli Air Force’s strike preparations and activities at three Israeli air bases, which are heavily surveilled by the US. The types of cruise missiles Israel was preparing, the ROCKS system (possibly Israel’s long-range Crystal Maze or Crystal Maze II air-launched cruise missile), and Golden Dawn, another cruise missile type possibly derived from the Sparrow series, were also mentioned.
The report also stated that the F-15I, not the F-35 “Adir” jets, would carry these missiles. It further specified the refueling tankers and surveillance platforms Israel would use.
The document of lower classification (secret level) talks about Israel’s Jericho II medium-range ballistic missiles, a key part of Israel’s nuclear deterrent. It implies the US’s acceptance of Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons, a fact the US has never officially acknowledged.
This leak of geospatial-origin intelligence undoubtedly harms Israel and suggests that Iran may have received even more sensitive intelligence, which it may be withholding from public disclosure.
The question remains – why would the Iranian government, either directly or via the Observer, leak this information? Some theories suggest that it was to deter Israel from an attack by demonstrating knowledge of their plans. Alternatively, it could be a way to boast about receiving secret US information, causing Israel to worry about potential security breaches.
This event is likely to lead to a significant reassessment in Israel. It may lead to a belief that US intelligence is compromised and unreliable, and some may even view the US as overtly hostile and acting against Israel’s interests.
The leak could hamper intelligence cooperation and directly harm the US since Israel has some of the best human intelligence (HUMINT) in the world with significant access to Iran’s nuclear programs.
The US House of Representatives Speaker, Mike Johnson, says an investigation is underway. The compromised documents could have been accessed by hundreds of personnel via secure internet, making the investigation complex. However, there is a chance that any hacks of US security information could be traced using the National Security Agency’s extensive capabilities.
It remains to be seen how Israel will respond. It would be reckless to retaliate now that some of its plans have been made public. Israel has reportedly agreed with the US not to strike Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities. However, given the circumstances, this agreement might be reconsidered.
Israel must also consider the possibility that its other operations, against Iranian proxies from the Red Sea to Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, are also at risk due to US intelligence leaks.
This article was initially published on Stephen Bryen’s Substack, Weapons and Strategy. Bryen served as the staff director of the Middle East subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. It is republished here with permission.
