As we transition from the summer season and cross the Labor Day threshold, traditionally, political campaigns start to gain momentum. While the off-year elections in November will indeed garner interest, the ultimate spectacle remains the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

In this version of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we delve into a question that will undoubtedly resurface as we approach the Iowa caucuses in four months: Is Donald Trump’s nomination a foregone conclusion? If not, how can we contextualize the probability of him winning the GOP primary in the annals of history?

Additionally, we have partial outcomes from two distinctive primary elections and engage in a lively discussion on the effective or ineffective usage of polling, focusing on a traditional yet contentious subject: internal polls.

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