The White House is optimistic that the termination of Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, could pave the way for the cessation of hostilities between Israel and the Gaza Strip’s Palestinian militant group, Hamas. The ongoing conflict has been a political burden for the Biden administration, with cease-fire talks and hostage release negotiations proving unfruitful for over a year.

However, there are uncertainties over whether Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his government will heed calls from the U.S. to scale back the conflict and resume cease-fire dialogues that have been on hold for over a month.

Israel officially announced on Thursday that a strike in Rafah, a southern Gazan city, led to the death of Sinwar, the Hamas chief who orchestrated the terror attacks on Oct. 7 last year, resulting in over 1,200 Israeli casualties and 250 held hostage by Hamas militants. Sinwar took over as the single leader of the Iranian-backed group in August after the assassination of his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran by Israel.

The news of Sinwar’s death emerged shortly after President Joe Biden and his national security team embarked on a journey to Germany. This development gave Biden’s aides a glimmer of hope that a cease-fire deal might be achievable, as per two senior administration officials who wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the matter.

While it’s premature to ascertain the effect of Sinwar’s demise, some officials in the West Wing feel that as long as Sinwar was alive, there was no chance of convincing hardliners in Netanyahu’s government to halt its assault on Gaza.

Sinwar’s death could now potentially energize those in Israel seeking to scale back the conflict. Coupled with Israel’s significant triumphs against Hezbollah in Lebanon, this could persuade Netanyahu to start winding down broader regional disputes.

Biden has prioritized a cease-fire deal and the liberation of remaining hostages during his term, but his close aides had largely given up on the possibility of this happening during his tenure. However, Sinwar’s demise has revived hope, albeit faintly.

Officials accept that any decrease in violence could benefit Vice President Kamala Harris in the final stages of the campaign. However, they also recognize that the unpredictability of Israel’s domestic politics, along with Netanyahu’s propensity to backtrack on his commitments, could pose significant challenges in finalizing any deal.

Sinwar was viewed as a significant barrier to cease-fire negotiations between Hamas and Israel. In a press briefing aboard Air Force One, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that Sinwar seemed more bent on spreading havoc and destruction than achieving a cease-fire and hostage deal.

Private hopes for peace were boosted by public statements from Biden and Harris, who both called on Israel to end its military operations in Gaza following the demise of the Hamas leader, arguing that a major impediment to a cease-fire and hostage release deal has now been removed.

In a statement, Biden hailed the news of Sinwar’s demise and mentioned that there is now a chance for a “day after” in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political resolution that ensures a brighter future for Israelis and Palestinians alike.

However, the future remains uncertain as Israel continues its military campaign which has caused massive civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction in Palestinian territories. This crisis has also resulted in widespread humanitarian suffering and has impacted Biden and Harris’ approval ratings, particularly among Arab American voters.

Furthermore, cease-fire talks have broken down in recent weeks with no clear end to the conflict. Despite this, Netanyahu vowed to continue Israel’s military operations and efforts to recover hostages held by Hamas.