Departure of a Rare Moderate Republican from the Senate Imminent

Utah Senator Mitt Romney announced on Wednesday that he would not be seeking reelection in 2024. While this decision is unlikely to affect the electoral status of his seat, it marks the exit of one of the few remaining Republican senators with a moderate voting record and an outspoken critic of former President Donald Trump.

Prior to his political career, Romney was a successful businessman and co-founder of Bain Capital. He served as the governor of Massachusetts in 2002 and ran twice for president, securing the Republican nomination in 2012. However, he lost to then-President Barack Obama in the general election.

Since 2016, the Republican party has shifted from Romney’s establishment-aligned conservatism towards Trump’s populist approach. Despite this trend, Romney was elected to the Senate from Utah in 2018. He has been vocal about his disagreement with the party’s new direction, voting to convict Trump in both impeachment trials.

With a moderate voting record and a DW-NOMINATE score of 0.288 (a roll-call vote-based measure of ideology where 1 is the most conservative and -1 the most liberal), Romney stands as one of the more moderate Republicans. His departure further dwindles the number of Trump critics and moderate Republicans in the Senate.

His moderate stance and criticism of Trump may have affected his popularity among Republican voters in Utah, possibly contributing to his decision to retire. A poll by Dan Jones & Associates revealed only 56% approval of Romney’s job performance among registered Republican voters, which is relatively low for a member of one’s own party. Conversely, 81% of Republicans nationwide have a favorable opinion of Trump, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.

Similar to Jeff Flake in 2018, Romney may have opted out of reelection due to fear of losing in the Republican primary. The same poll showed Romney garnering only 45% support among Republicans, considerably low for an incumbent. However, there is still time for a candidate similar to Romney to emerge. Nonetheless, Romney’s retirement deals a significant blow to Republicans who are dissatisfied with the current state of their party.

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