The upcoming second Republican presidential primary debate is rapidly approaching, with GOP candidates racing against the clock to meet the Republican National Committee’s qualification standards. To be eligible for the debate on September 27, each candidate needs to demonstrate a minimum of 3% support in two national qualifying polls, or 3% in one national poll and the same in two different early voting states, since August 1. They also need to provide proof of having amassed at least 50,000 unique campaign donors. Additionally, candidates will have to pledge their support to the party’s 2024 nominee to participate.
Current indications suggest that fewer candidates may qualify for the second debate compared to the first one held in August. While six of the eight participants from the first debate are likely to make the cut, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson may face challenges due to increased September thresholds for polls and donors. Also, former President Donald Trump, despite meeting the qualifications, is expected to abstain from the second debate like he did the first.
Based on FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy have at least 3% support in every qualifying survey. Other candidates like Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Tim Scott have also met the polling and donor thresholds.
For candidates like Burgum and Hutchinson, the increased polling threshold from 1% to 3% appears to be a significant hurdle. Burgum has managed to hit the 3% mark only in a single statewide survey, whereas Hutchinson, who requires both more polls and donors to qualify, has not exceeded 1% in any eligible nationwide poll conducted since the first debate.
Trump’s decision to skip the second debate continues to influence the process. Despite leading the polls, his absence provides an opportunity for other contenders to gain the spotlight. This is crucial for these candidates as the debate serves as a platform to be seen and heard by a vast audience, potentially impacting the course of their campaigns.
