North Korea has heightened its participation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, providing military expertise to Russia in their missile attacks against Ukraine, according to high-ranking officials from Ukraine and South Korea. This report was detailed in a recent article by The War Zone.
For the first time, a foreign government, North Korea, has dispatched its troops, including officers, to aid Russia in its invasion. Unlike NATO countries, which have only sent military advisors to Ukraine, North Korea has sent actual troops.
The War Zone suggests that North Korea’s involvement is dual-purpose: testing its weapons and gaining valuable experience from high-intensity combat. In response, Ukraine has targeted North Korean ammunition storage units in Russia.
Recently declassified US intelligence documents reveal Russia’s use of North Korean short-range ballistic missiles, such as the KN-23 and KN-24, to target Ukraine’s vital infrastructure. Since the conflict began in February 2022, over a million artillery rounds have reportedly been provided by North Korea to Russia.
The support from North Korea could be driven by the belief that if Russia is victorious, it could lead to the US and UN lifting sanctions against them. These sanctions have been economically devastating for North Korea, forcing it to rely heavily on China, which in turn compromises its strategic independence.
As North Korea escalates its involvement by dispatching more troops to the warfront, Ukraine has retaliated by targeting these forces and disrupting supply routes. Reports of North Korean casualties in Ukraine have been confirmed by South Korea’s defense minister, Kim Yong-Hyun, according to a Politico article.
Estimating the exact number of North Korean military personnel in Ukraine is challenging. However, as per a June 2024 The Telegram article, North Korea, under its mutual defense pact with Russia, planned to send three of its ten engineering brigades. Given this, North Korea could have as many as 15,000 soldiers in Ukraine.
In reaction to North Korea’s increased military presence in Ukraine, Ukraine is said to have intensified its attacks on Russian ammunition depots, specifically those supplied by North Korea. Ukraine has struck several key sites, destroying munitions provided by North Korea.
The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine has played a crucial role in these operations, aiming to disrupt Russia’s logistics and reduce its artillery capabilities. However, Ukraine’s efforts to secure a decisive victory under its “Victory Plan” are complicated by NATO’s hesitation to provide long-range weapons and Russia’s threat of nuclear weapons.
In a report by RBC-Ukraine, it was revealed that Ukraine’s Victory Plan is a strategic plan for modern warfare against Russia. While the details of the plan are not clear, it emphasizes the necessity of international support and a unified stance against Russian aggression.
Former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg discussed NATO’s cautious approach regarding providing long-range munitions to Ukraine for strikes deep inside Russian territory in a Politico article. He stated that while NATO has delivered substantial support to Ukraine, there remains a significant debate over the use of these weapons on Russian soil.
In a recent announcement, Putin revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine, stating that any conventional attack on Russia, supported by nuclear power, would be considered a joint nuclear assault. This revised policy widens the circumstances under which Russia might use nuclear weapons.
Beyond the nuclear threat, Russia could escalate the situation in other ways. For example, it is considering sending advanced P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles to Houthi rebels in Yemen. This move could significantly increase the Houthis’ ability to threaten commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea, although a final decision has not yet been made.