In the recent past, the media spotlight has justifiably centered around the anniversary of the attacks that took place on October 7, where nearly 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals were ruthlessly slain by Hamas attackers, with a further 251 kidnapped. The news has also been dominated by Israel’s ongoing ground invasion in Lebanon, an extension of the intensive air raids on the country’s southern, eastern, and capital regions.

Simultaneously, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been persisting with their military operations in Gaza, a conflict which has tragically claimed the lives of about 42,000 individuals as per the health ministry run by Hamas. A resurgence of Hamas paramilitary actions has been observed in Jabalia, close to Gaza City, an area previously under the firm grip of the IDF.

The suffering of the Palestinian people has been extensive and prolonged, inflicting severe damage on Hamas. Despite this, the Gaza conflict has morphed into a violent deadlock, with neither side able to claim victory or face defeat.

Despite this impasse, Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is resolute in his decision to continue the battle in Gaza while extending the conflict to Lebanon.

Netanyahu’s primary challenge has been the high level of domestic opposition regarding the hostage situation. This was highlighted by a nationwide strike in early September in support of a hostage deal and the enormity of protests against his government in recent times.

However, the commencement of Israel’s military actions in Lebanon has provided Netanyahu with some respite. At the end of September, opinion polls suggested that Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party would secure the most seats if general elections were held.

The IDF’s subsequent actions may determine whether this popularity endures. But the future direction of the war could hinge on the extreme-right factions of Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, particularly the rise of messianic Judaism.

Messianic Judaism, a blend of ultra-orthodox Judaism and religious nationalism that has gained momentum in Israel, strives for a purely Jewish state. This includes rebuilding the Temple of Solomon on the site currently home to Islam’s third holiest site, the Al-Aqsa Mosque, located in Jerusalem’s Old City.

The military has seen a growing influence of this movement, largely due to the religious education of many soldiers and the high number of recruits from religious backgrounds. Some of the most active Israeli military units in the Gaza war, like the Netzah Yehuda (Judah Forever) battalion, are drawn from such groups.

The role of messianic Judaism in Israeli politics is often underestimated. Its hardline stance on ending the war and support for Netanyahu’s government on its own terms make it a significant player.

Israel has veered significantly to the right in three distinct periods: post the Yom Kippur war in 1973, after the arrival of hundreds of thousands of immigrants from the former Soviet bloc in the 90s, and in response to the second intifada (or uprising) in the early 2000s.

This rightward shift has seen increased support for the Likud party and smaller parties that are staunchly Zionist and deeply resistant to any Palestinian influence on Israeli politics.

From 2010, there seemed to be a period of stability. The IDF maintained strict control over Gaza and the occupied West Bank, resulting in a stalemate in Lebanon.

However, the loss of life and the taking of hostages on October 7 were deeply shocking. It was evident from the onset that the government’s response would be all-out and aimed at the obliteration of Hamas.

A year on, that possibility seems reduced. But for a more peaceful co-existence between Israel and Palestine to ever materialize, the position of hardline Israelis must be acknowledged, particularly given their influential role in the current Netanyahu government.

To put it plainly, the hardliners believe that the Palestinian issue must be addressed. They aspire to annex the West Bank, overthrow the Palestinian Authority, reoccupy and resettle Gaza permanently, and push Palestinians abroad, as quoted by The Economist on August 29.

They also wish to shift Israel away from secularism. Netanyahu’s early attempt to curb judicial power was just the first step towards this goal, according to the same article.

The article argues that the government’s objective is to eliminate the secular “deep state” and take control of the army, security agencies, and courts. However, this goal is significantly hindered by the international perception of Israel as a rogue state.

However, it’s clear that Israeli society is becoming more hawkish, likely fueled by significant recent emigration, including a “brain drain” from the secular elite.

For now, the Netanyahu government may appear secure. But political stability is a hard-earned and easily lost commodity, particularly in times of escalated warfare.

Paul Rogers, a professor of peace studies at the University of Bradford, authored this article. It was originally published on The Conversation and has been republished here under a Creative Commons license.